'Lord' of the Budget

And you thought "Titanic" was big. Get ready for "Lord of the Rings," the biggest gamble in Hollywood history: a $300 million trilogy based on the J.R.R. Tolkien tales.

And that doesn't count the expected $150 million marketing budget. Though the first film doesn't open worldwide until Dec. 19 - on an unprecedented number of screens - the marketing push is already well under way.

Here's why: No movie has ever had more money riding on it - and the challenge for New Line is not only to have a hit with the first installment, but to sustain public interest over two years and two sequels.

"Everyone expects this first film to be huge," says Robert Buxbaum, president of box-office analysts ReelSource. "But when you're dealing with sequels, you face diminishing returns, especially on the third one. If the first movie doesn't make $200 million, what's going to happen to the next two?"

Adding to the risk, there are no marquee stars like Tom Cruise or Julia Roberts in sight - just respected actors such as Ian McKellen, Cate Blanchett, Liv Tyler and Ian Holm. The topliner - Elijah Wood playing Frodo Baggins - is not a major box-office draw.

Still, early signs are promising.

When 26 minutes of footage from the film was screened for the international press at the Cannes Film Festival, the crowd - comprised of both critics and a sprinkling of hard-core fans - broke out in applause five times and gave director Peter Jackson a standing ovation.

"I don't think there's any doubt it's going to be massive, based on the books' hard-core following alone," says reel.com columnist Jeffrey Wells.

Buxbaum is less bullish. "These movies get a tremendous amount of hype before opening, but those who are vocal about wanting to see the movie are a very select group. They're the sci-fi geeks who sit on their computer all day and have read all Tolkien's books - they don't represent the mainstream."

But, Buxbaum says, New Line has a reputation for putting out films with fantasy themes that cross over into the mainstream, such as "Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles," "The Mask" and "Mortal Kombat."

"They may just pull it off," he says. New Line's teasers have concentrated on amazing special effects and mind-blowing action sequences.

But online film guru Harry Knowles - who has read the "Rings" screenplay and seen more of the footage than most - says the story line is also solid.

"The critics who have seen the early footage are thinking of it as another special effects fest, but when they get into the theater they're going to see some very real, amazing acting and a Shakespearean level of writing," he says.

"The only time I've felt this confident about a film was before 'Titanic' came out."